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Naira among worst-performing currencies in Africa – world bank

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The World Bank has described the Nigerian naira as one of the worst-performing currencies in Africa.

The, according to the report, weakened by nearly 40 per cent against the US dollar since a mid-June devaluation.

In a report by the global bank titled, ‘Africa’s Pulse: An analysis of issues shaping Africa’s economic future (October 2023 | Volume 28),’ it stated that so far this year, the Nigerian naira and the Angolan kwanza are among the worst performing currencies in the region, saying that the currencies have posted a year-to-date depreciation of nearly 40 per cent.

According to the report, “The weakening of the naira was triggered by the central bank’s decision to remove trading restrictions on the official market.

“For the kwanza, it was the decision of the central bank to stop defending the currency as a result of low oil prices and greater debt payments.”

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Other currencies, according to the World Bank report with significant losses so far in 2023, included South Sudan (33 per cent), Burundi (27 per cent), the Democratic Republic of Congo (18 per cent), Kenya (16 per cent), Zambia (12 per cent), Ghana (12 per cent), and Rwanda (11 per cent).

The report explained that the Central Bank of Nigeria in June 2023, directed Deposit Money Banks to remove the rate cap on the naira at the official Investors and Exporters’ window of the foreign exchange market, and allow the free float of the naira against the dollar and other global currencies.

Since then, the naira has fallen from N473.83/$ to around N800/$ officially, the report said.

The bank stated that this had been the case from March 2020 until June 2023 with the widening difference between the parallel and official exchange rates of the naira.

The report stated that the Central Bank’s interventions to restrict foreign exchange demand and keep the exchange rate artificially low were met with declining FX supply from oil revenues, stressing that the parallel rate premium increased to 80 per cent in November 2022, and then to about 60 per cent in June 2023.

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It added that the unification and liberalisation of the exchange rates in June 2023 allowed the NAFEX rate to converge to the parallel one, closing the gap, saying that the resistance toward the increasing pressure on the Nigerian naira coupled with limited supply of FX at the official window has led to the reemergence of the parallel market premium.

The Washington-based bank highlighted that the Nigeria’s growth rate would decelerate from 3.3 per cent in 2022 to 2.9 per cent in 2023

The country’s oil production, according to the report, had remained below OPEC quota amid capacity issues and lower international oil prices and while non-oil economic activity, particularly industry and services still supported growth, policy actions to remove fuel subsidies and unify the exchange rates might be weighing on those activities in the short term.

It noted that the weak business confidence and rising input costs are driving the contraction of activity as business confidence appears to have weakened in Nigeria.

The World Bank noted that activity in Nigeria’s manufacturing and services’ sector contracted in August.

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The global bank disclosed that purchasing power of households was expected to suffer in the short term following the recent reforms of the new administration of Bola Tinubu.

It stated that the incoming Tinubu administration implemented a series of reforms that included the removal of fuel subsidy and the devaluation and unification of the exchange rate system, stressing that petroleum prices have more than tripled since the subsidies were lifted at the end of May.

It said that the naira has weakened by nearly 40 per cent against the US dollar since the mid-June devaluation.

The bank noted that the measures were intended to improve the fiscal and external accounts of the nation but their inflationary effects in the near term can erode the purchasing power of households and weigh on economic activity.

CREDIT: DAILY POST

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Inflation bites harder, renders N20, N10, N5 ‘irrelevant’

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In major markets, prices of goods are shifting away from the lower denominations of the Naira currency due to worsening inflation.

Not too long ago, items like a sachet of pure water were priced at N5, while N20 was commonly used to “settle” police officers at checkpoints. However, in recent years, these smaller denominations have struggled to purchase much.

A recent market survey by DAILY POST revealed that more than half of Nigeria’s legal tender is insufficient for making purchases.

Despite this, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) recognizes denominations such as 50 kobo, N1, and N2 in coin form, as well as N5, N10, N20, and N50 printed on polymer materials.

Currently, a sachet of pure water is priced at N30, and retail prices for items like sugar and candies have increased, with goods often being priced in multiples of 50 or 100, rendering smaller denominations irrelevant.

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Over the past six months, the Naira has significantly depreciated against the dollar, with the intervention by the CBN bringing it to around N1050 to a dollar from a previous high of about N1,900.

This means that Nigeria’s highest denomination of N1000 is now worth less than a single dollar. Holding $1000 makes one a millionaire in Naira based on the current exchange rate, while even $1 exceeds N1,000.

Despite the recent appreciation of the Naira, commodity prices remain high, attributed to various factors including foreign exchange (FX) issues.

However, the Nigerian government continues to print lower denomination currencies at a substantial cost. It reportedly costs N1000 to print each lower denomination due to limitations in printing on polymer.

Experts are urging the CBN to cease printing lower denominations and reconsider the currency structure in line with present circumstances. Some suggest adopting a re-denomination policy similar to Ghana’s, which removed zeros from their currency in 2007.

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Former plans by the CBN to introduce N5000 notes and coin lower denominations like N5, N10, and N20 were met with public backlash in 2012, leading to the abandonment of the proposals. However, prices of goods and services have since risen beyond 2012 levels.

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Interest Rate, High Energy Costs Putting Businesses Under Pressure, LCCI Laments

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce & Industry (LCCI) has expressed concern about the elevated cost of conducting business in Nigeria, citing factors such as the recent hike in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) and the increase in electricity tariffs.

Dr. Chinyere Almona, the director-general of LCCI, conveyed these concerns in a statement addressed to LEADERSHIP. Almona highlighted the Chamber’s dismay over the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) decision to raise the MPR from 22.75 percent to 24.75 percent, stating that “similarly, we view the recent escalation in electricity tariffs as adding to the already unbearable cost of living and doing business in Nigeria.”

She underscored that these decisions are compounded by challenges in importing and clearing goods at Nigerian ports, with fluctuating import duty exchange rates making business planning arduous. Almona emphasized that feedback from businesses and analysts suggests that these actions will significantly burden the private sector, worsening an already challenging economic landscape.

Almona noted that the private sector, crucial for driving growth and employment in Nigeria, is grappling with heightened borrowing costs, reduced investment incentives, policy uncertainties, and pressure in the foreign exchange market. She observed that the recent MPR hikes have translated into higher interest rates, hindering businesses’ access to credit for essential functions like working capital, expansion, and sustainability.

While acknowledging the rationale behind removing the subsidy on electricity supply to attract foreign investors with a cost-reflective tariff, Almona advocated for subsidizing production rather than consumption. She urged for an extensive metering program to cover all electricity consumers and emphasized the necessity of a robust regulatory and policy framework to attract more foreign investments into the power sector.

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Almona pointed out that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are disproportionately affected by the MPR hike policy, given their thin profit margins and reliance on affordable credit. The surge in borrowing costs stifles their ability to invest in productivity enhancements, hire new employees, and contribute to economic growth.

The Chamber urged the CBN to reconsider its monetary policy stance and refrain from further interest rate hikes. Almona also suggested that the CBN explore alternative policy measures to facilitate credit access, encourage investment, and support entrepreneurship. Additionally, she recommended creating an enabling environment for local meter manufacturing to address the gap in meter deployment.

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Naira appreciates N351 against Dollar at forex in one month

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According to data from FMDQ on the dollar exchange rate spanning from March 8 to April 5, 2024, the Naira has experienced a positive shift, appreciating by N351.12 against the US Dollar within the past month. This indicates an increase from N1,602.17 on March 8 to N1,251.05 per Dollar on Friday. This appreciation amounts to a 21.9 percent increase during the mentioned timeframe, signaling a continued strengthening of the Naira since the previous month.

Muda Yusuf, the Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, attributed this sustained appreciation of the Naira in the foreign exchange market to recent forex reforms implemented by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

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